Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.932788 1.093969 1.274646 1.492214 1.747192 2.036670 2.390474
2024-10-13 0.644715 0.846717 1.099851 1.440562 1.887683 2.455273 3.231992
2024-10-20 0.490965 0.698922 0.981056 1.392208 1.977195 2.781519 3.975062
2024-10-27 0.392064 0.595766 0.890476 1.348545 2.044468 3.065403 4.683547
2024-11-03 0.337035 0.541823 0.855010 1.369686 2.197249 3.481346 5.636168
2024-11-10 0.310682 0.525271 0.870149 1.465911 2.473812 4.118389 7.023252
2024-11-17 0.279880 0.495376 0.857699 1.512683 2.673271 4.655743 8.324975
2024-11-24 0.248434 0.458691 0.827231 1.521982 2.806800 5.096331 9.521051
2024-12-01 0.219232 0.421013 0.788673 1.509392 2.896427 5.467602 10.641235
2024-12-08 0.195398 0.389401 0.756027 1.501688 2.991671 5.858415 11.850737
2024-12-15 0.177767 0.366939 0.737036 1.516563 3.130841 6.348569 13.322748
2024-12-22 0.155385 0.331589 0.687800 1.463368 3.124705 6.549135 14.230851
2024-12-29 0.150479 0.332260 0.712305 1.568388 3.466979 7.517474 16.930162
2025-01-05 0.132124 0.301478 0.667198 1.518485 3.470745 7.776389 18.129131
2025-01-12 0.116262 0.273793 0.624731 1.467777 3.464424 8.010898 19.307541
2025-01-19 0.102876 0.249745 0.586879 1.421748 3.461363 8.250911 20.534442
2025-01-26 0.095677 0.239243 0.578550 1.444044 3.623421 8.897123 22.846733
2025-02-02 0.093943 0.241804 0.601375 1.545528 3.994445 10.097187 26.735980
2025-02-09 0.089215 0.236126 0.603337 1.594857 4.241119 11.025236 30.070086
2025-02-16 0.082847 0.225249 0.590759 1.604665 4.386346 11.715645 32.880448
2025-02-23 0.076035 0.212172 0.570667 1.591386 4.467451 12.248844 35.341899
2025-03-02 0.070142 0.200748 0.553378 1.583261 4.561640 12.830850 38.035472
2025-03-09 0.065784 0.193004 0.544995 1.598949 4.725663 13.629460 41.488168